NEW DELHI: The battle royal of 2024 put the opposition back in the opposition benches. But only just, with the unmistakable message from the power play being that after a decade of reeling from Modi-led BJP 's cycle of victories, the anti-BJP bloc was robustly ascendant.
Over a year-and-a-half later, the scenario for INDIA bloc has shifted firmly back to the gloomy days of pre-2024, with BJP having stolen convincing victories from expected defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra, making its equally embarrassing losses in Jharkhand and J&K a sideshow. This post-2024 context makes the coming battle for Bihar more consequential nationally, far outweighing the otherwise equally crucial local questions like if RJD can return to office after a hiatus of two decades, and if it can stop BJP from emerging from the shadow of allies to become the single-largest player in state for the first time in its history.
By general reckoning, Bihar will be watched for whether opposition still has the resilience that put it within striking distance of winning in national contest last year, despite adverse circumstances skewing the playing field in favour of the incumbent.
It is, by universal acceptance, an uphill task for INDIA bloc. The BJP-JDU combine is looking to use incumbency to its advantage, like by announcing massive doles for women voters in the run-up to the polls, backed by the face of Modi, with CM and JDU chief Nitish Kumar as the solid ally. The equation brings with it caste engineering that has helped the governing combine to tide over challenging circumstances, like in the narrow win in 2020 in the shadow of Covid pandemic.
INDIA bloc believes it has done the basics right, like getting the allies together and running an early statewide campaign of cohesion through 'Vote Adhikar Yatra' headlined by Rahul Gandhi, with Tejashwi Yadav and others in tow. The outrage over voters' list revision turned out well for the alliance as SC stamped on its demand for enlarging the basket of documents for voter registration. If a chord was to be struck through the efforts, it happened.
But taking on BJP-JDU is a challenge. The caste net of the two allies, from upper castes to weaker backward classes, is a solid foundation, and much would depend on how far the rainbow alliance of Congress-RJD-CPI (ML)-VIP has succeeded in socially denting the rival camp in past couple of years since they came together with a purpose.
If RJD managed to run the rivals ragged five years ago, it was helped by the unrest caused by grievances over Covid relief and Chirag Paswan's contesting solo, with LJP's gun trained on CM Nitish. This time, Paswan is an ally of BJP-JDU, which is a huge plus for the governing combine.
Sources said positives for opposition are Nitish's Muslim voters are angry over waqf law & BJP's unmitigated 'communal' rhetoric. Also, there is hope that most backwards are not sure of his primacy in the alliance, with doubts about his becoming the CM, which could persuade them to go for opposition - a possible reason Tejashwi has been talking about Nitish's 'erratic behaviour', claiming he is in "achet awastha" (an unconscious state). The other hope is that pollster-turned-politician and Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishor would dent the BJP-JDU support base and help opposition.
Over a year-and-a-half later, the scenario for INDIA bloc has shifted firmly back to the gloomy days of pre-2024, with BJP having stolen convincing victories from expected defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra, making its equally embarrassing losses in Jharkhand and J&K a sideshow. This post-2024 context makes the coming battle for Bihar more consequential nationally, far outweighing the otherwise equally crucial local questions like if RJD can return to office after a hiatus of two decades, and if it can stop BJP from emerging from the shadow of allies to become the single-largest player in state for the first time in its history.
By general reckoning, Bihar will be watched for whether opposition still has the resilience that put it within striking distance of winning in national contest last year, despite adverse circumstances skewing the playing field in favour of the incumbent.
It is, by universal acceptance, an uphill task for INDIA bloc. The BJP-JDU combine is looking to use incumbency to its advantage, like by announcing massive doles for women voters in the run-up to the polls, backed by the face of Modi, with CM and JDU chief Nitish Kumar as the solid ally. The equation brings with it caste engineering that has helped the governing combine to tide over challenging circumstances, like in the narrow win in 2020 in the shadow of Covid pandemic.
INDIA bloc believes it has done the basics right, like getting the allies together and running an early statewide campaign of cohesion through 'Vote Adhikar Yatra' headlined by Rahul Gandhi, with Tejashwi Yadav and others in tow. The outrage over voters' list revision turned out well for the alliance as SC stamped on its demand for enlarging the basket of documents for voter registration. If a chord was to be struck through the efforts, it happened.
But taking on BJP-JDU is a challenge. The caste net of the two allies, from upper castes to weaker backward classes, is a solid foundation, and much would depend on how far the rainbow alliance of Congress-RJD-CPI (ML)-VIP has succeeded in socially denting the rival camp in past couple of years since they came together with a purpose.
If RJD managed to run the rivals ragged five years ago, it was helped by the unrest caused by grievances over Covid relief and Chirag Paswan's contesting solo, with LJP's gun trained on CM Nitish. This time, Paswan is an ally of BJP-JDU, which is a huge plus for the governing combine.
Sources said positives for opposition are Nitish's Muslim voters are angry over waqf law & BJP's unmitigated 'communal' rhetoric. Also, there is hope that most backwards are not sure of his primacy in the alliance, with doubts about his becoming the CM, which could persuade them to go for opposition - a possible reason Tejashwi has been talking about Nitish's 'erratic behaviour', claiming he is in "achet awastha" (an unconscious state). The other hope is that pollster-turned-politician and Jan Suraaj Party chief Prashant Kishor would dent the BJP-JDU support base and help opposition.
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